Wow! Did I get it wrong (to this point)! It’s near complete embarrassment to this point for my prognostication skills. Nevertheless, I plow on. Even my poor punditry will not stop me from doing more baseball posts.
I’ll start with my preseason analysis of the rules
changes. At least, I was right about the
games being sped up with the pitch clock.
I knew that was going to happen from listening to Chihuahuas games last year with the new rules. The games may or may not be good enjoyable in
and of themselves, but at least they’re not as arduous to endure. We can only hope this trend continues.
The best thing about the pitch clock is that it has
eliminated a lot of bitching by the hitters at the umps. There’s not enough time between pitches or
after at bats for them to do it.
Genius! (Now, we need to work on
getting rid of challenges.) I was so
sick of this, but it doesn’t mean the batters were wrong. Home plate umps are not doing themselves any
favors this season with some of their balls and strikes. We’re going to get an automatic strike zone
one way or the other in the near future.
I read the Baseball
America preseason issue well after posting my preseason thoughts. Their take on eliminating radical shifting
was that it had no effect on overall batting averages in the lower leagues. When the season started, hitting seemed to be
up, but since it has gone back down. Luis Arraez on the Marlins flirting with
.400 aside, .300 hitters are still rare in the game. (There aren’t even ten batters in either
league hitting over .300.) What does
this mean? It means all that shifting
crap was basically geek nonsense.
I’ll get to some team performances in a moment, but in an
overview, results to this point have been surprising. The biggest alteration to baseball this
season that has changed the game has been . . . the balanced schedule? I’m forced to conclude this because teams
playing irregular opponents has apparently led to some real surprises. (Hey, five of the six division leads are
close.) Some teams have been
exposed. Other teams have suddenly
become contenders. The differences
between the divisions have been stark.
This likely won’t last (perhaps not even to the end of the season), but
for now the league isn’t as predictable and that’s a good thing.
One last note. MLB team TV broadcasts ownerships are
still up in the air. The league took
over the Padres’ broadcasts after the season began. They’ve offered to take over for any other
team. I don’t know where this is going,
but we can all still watch for now.
We’ll breakdown some of the teams and start with the
unexpected losers first. What happened
to the Cardinals? Everyone (not just me) had them as a lock to
win the NL Central. They’re in last
right now only because that is as furthest down as they can go. Everyone had questioned their pitching, but
apparently recently retired catcher, Yadier
Molina, was only thing making them any good. Will the Cardinals tear down at the trade
deadline?
A lot of predictors’ choice for winning the World Series
(including me), the San Diego Padres, are in fourth place in the NL
West. Lucky for them that the Rockies exist to fill that bottom
spot. This failure is inexplicable. They’ve got the pitching and their hitting
doesn’t look that bad statistically. The
intangibles are killing them. The fix is
likely to be subtraction. There’s too
many stars with no leadership amongst them.
A couple of huge Padres fans I know have already given up on them. There’s plenty of talent on the team for them
to turn it around, but some good teams ahead of them are going to shoot
themselves in the foot for the Padres to get into the playoffs.
Speaking of one of those teams, the Mets have the far and away biggest payroll in the MLB and are
playing sub .500 ball and are fourth in their division. The lesson for the Mets and Padres seems to
be that you can only buy a championship if you’re the Yankees or Dodgers. (Of course, other teams have purchased
championships, like the Marlins. I kind of like this years’ team to sneak into
the playoffs.)
This Mets team was just never as good as their payroll
said it would be. I have a feeling there
might be a comeback in their future, though.
They might even add payroll at the deadline. (Shohei!
Just kidding. I don’t think they
have the chips to trade for him, but they’ll make some moves.)
Enough losers.
Let’s talk about the surprise winners so far. We’ll start with the Rangers. Yay! (I’m tempted to call them “my Rangers,” but
that would be premature.) Jacob deGrom’s presence on the team
turned out just like the all experts predicted: a huge money sink into a
continuously injured player. What wasn’t
predicted was that the rest of the team was really good, especially the
offense. Of course, manager Bruce Bochy has pulled it all
together. I think losing deGrom for the
rest of the season has affected the pitching staff, on field and
psychologically. I’m worried they’re
going to come down to earth (which they have recently). Getting Aroldis
Chapman for the bullpen helps. They
might not be done dealing. (Shohei! No.
The Angels aren’t going to trade him to a division rival.)
Who’s leading the NL Central? It’s America’s Team, the Cincinnati Reds! Elly de la Cruz’s call up has been the
most epic rookie reinforcement ever. It
was so cool to see Great American
Ballpark full of cheering fans.
(What a great time to bring up their new City Connect uni’s. They’ve probably sold a ton.) Granted the division is weak, but the Reds
are on fire and have totally earned the lead.
Will it last? Who’s going to
challenge them? The Brewers and Cubs do
have talent. Will they trade for some
reinforcements? (I’m having a hard time
seeing Shohei with either team.)
Then again, how about the Pittsburgh Pirates? They’re
in fourth place with a losing record, but they had a thrilling 20-8 run to
start the season. And this was after
losing their up-and-coming star, Oneil
Cruz. After that streak, they went
on two long losing streaks and dropped out of first, but I already consider
this season something of a win, because it showed potential.
Their two major call ups (as the Pirates tried to stop
their losing streaks), Henry Davis
and Nick Gonzales, have performed
admirably. (I’m totally nonbiased about
Nick, who is clearly Hall of Fame material.)
And they aren’t done with good prospects. Put some investment in this team (they’re
getting Shohei, I’m calling it, they’ve got prospects they can deal) and get
Cruz back, I like their chances, if not this season, then next.
Who’s leading the NL West?
It’s been the Diamondbacks. I can’t believe I’m writing this. The Dodgers
have just statistically overtaken them before the break, but the D-Backs have
got a great team with a couple of great players, Corbin Carroll and Zac
Gallen. If they can get some
reinforcements (they’re getting Shohei, I’m calling it, though I doubt they
have anything to trade for him), they might get back their lead. Of course, the Dodgers’ lack of moves in the offseason
means that they’re getting Shohei (I’m calling it).
The Braves have
almost buried everyone in the NL East.
The Braves do not need Shohei on their team. Ronald
Acuna Jr. is already like a two-way player.
He’s doing so well, he’s like having two guys in the lineup by himself. Meanwhile, after a slow start, our reigning
champions, the Houston Astros, are
gaining momentum and catching up on the Rangers. I sense they’re lacking some magic. Could there be some Shohei in their
future? (I’m calling it. JK. Division
rival. Not happening.)
Then there’s the AL East.
No losers here. Nobody has a
losing record. (Unlike the AL Central,
where the leader, the Indians, have
a .500 record. The winner of this
division will have a losing record. I’m
calling it.) The Rays have cooled off a bit, but these “frauds,” as I called them,
have the second best record in baseball (behind the Braves, who just beat them two
of three). They’re just fundamentally
sound. The Orioles are right there behind them and looking pretty good as
well.
These two teams also have two of the three lowest payrolls
in the MLB. (Plenty of Luxury Tax space
to add Shohei. However, that’s not going
to happen.) This just warms my heart, as
I see the Yankees, second in
payroll, but a distant third in the division.
Tracking with my prediction, Aaron
Judge is on this second stint on the IL with no timetable to return. (It’ll be right after the All-Star Break or
if the team starts falling out of contention for a Wild Card spot or right
before the playoffs, if they’re in for sure.)
The Yankees have played decently without him.
If the Yankees do start fading this month without Judge,
they’ll pick up Shohei, and that is my legit prediction. Otherwise, it’ll be the Dodgers doing
it. There’s plenty of teams that need
him, but the Yankees and Dodgers are probably the only ones with the prospects
to trade for him and don’t care who they give up. The other teams don’t have the trade bait
without giving up good big leaguers or can’t afford to burn their farm system
for a rental.
I’m actually kind of excited to see what happens at the
trade deadline and with the rest of the season.
MLB schedule changes have shaken up the established order pretty good
here in the first half. Will things
start to return to normal in the second half, or are there more surprises in
store? I’ll be back with a Trade
Deadline report if something interesting happens then.
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