Within two years either 4e or the Retro-Clone movement/Pathfinder (united in cause, divided in method) will be effectively dead. That is to say, not gaining any new players and losing what it has. I wrote that on paper a year ago, but I’ll give myself another year.
Of course, the likeliest possibility is that they’re both dead in that timeframe.
Hasbro could plug the plug on pen and paper D&D at any moment for reasons that only make sense to their accountants. They could relaunch D&D as an online-only service, buying out Everquest or something. Or they could make D&D just a miniatures board game (well, that’s already pretty much 4e), or a collectible card game (shudder), or combine the two for 5e (petite mal seizure).
Paizo, God bless them, may be only prolonging the inevitable with Pathfinder/3e, they just don’t know it yet. Don’t worry. Their Golarion setting and adventures will live on using another system.
And the clones, divided and squabbling over what is “real” D&D is will never amount to anything. It is the domain of fanatical altruists, as well as opportunists looking for a trendy marketing niche, like Monte Cook. On the other hand, their games are free and resources plentiful, so they won’t die a final death either.
Is D&D a hobby/passion with an expiration date for most people? Superhero comic books, the bulk of new comics, are a hobby most people can only stomach for so long. In the span of about five years, you’ll see essentially every type of superhero story there’s ever been. Is D&D the same? Can the average person only do role-play so many times before abandoning it, perhaps picking it up and dusting it off every so often to remind themselves why they liked it and why they stopped? Sort of reminds me of my old Dark Tower game.
I've said plenty about 4e, and I have something to say about Pathfinder’s ultimate survivability in another blog. For the Old School, I have two areas of overall concern. In another post, I'll get to some specific issues.
First, I hope Grognardia is right and that we are on the cusp of a New Old School. More Old School style, but with a better rules framework, incorporating Make It Your Own with the best in playable new ideas. Trying to satisfy the grognard community with one system is a fool’s errand, but a central, published product to rally around is essential. It has to be new material, not a nostalgic rehash of rules systems come, gone, and replaced. It has to be user expandable, with clearly labeled differences between core rules and optional rules. Paizo might be the best option for this mythical product, if they can just pull their head out of their 3e rear.
Meanwhile, I worry about the current OS fascination with mega-dungeons. Does “Old School” really work best in dungeons? “Explore till you die” seems like the OS motto. 4e with healing surges, an easier trap detection mechanic, minions, and a complete reliance on minis, seems like a better fit in such an environment. 4e is Old School in that regard at least. OS, with its looser, judgement call rules and the threat of easy character death, might work better in places like small lair-type dungeons, or thieving an urban business, combat arenas, or raiding a mysterious outdoor temple. Places that could conceivably be studied first before they were assaulted and where escapes could be quicker.
If the Old School movement becomes synonymous with only dungeon crawls, no matter how inventive or clever, it dies. Stuff like Dragonlance and Paizo Adventure Paths became popular because players and DM’s wanted more. If Old School can get it’s act together with a system, expanding the playing environment needs to be the next goal.
J.
Link of Interest:
Grognardia
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