Sorry, this blog was originally titled, “MLB Hot Stove 2025.” I really meant to do it, but the trades kept dribbling out until I decided to make it part of this season’s preview. I tried keeping up with major trades, but probably missed a few anyway. Well, let’s get to the Preview.
Preview Magazine
I picked up Lindy’s Baseball Preview magazine at the end of January. I was surprised to find it there so early. In fact, it was way too early. There were a bunch of important signings and trades that happened after. I don’t know why they don’t publish this at the beginning of March. Trades no longer mostly happen at the Winter Meetings. It goes all winter.
I actually really wished I’d waited. I went back to Barnes & Noble a couple of times and found more and likely better ones. The Athlon one seemed to have better articles. Baseball America, now a regular-sized magazine instead a tabloid, produced a preview issue. (They also had a separate College Baseball preview issue.) Sports Illustrated had a mostly baseball issue for Opening Day week with the latest updates. The best I can say is that the Lindy’s one may have been the cheapest option.
The text of the preview magazine I did get was fairly functional, but there were a few zingers.
About the World Series: “In a subhead that required three semicolons and an inconsistent use of capitalization, the league proclaimed: Game Seven is Most-Watched MLB Game Globally in 34 years.” The MLB points to the huge ratings of last years’ World Series and international viewers, but two/thirds of the audience was in Canada and Japan for the Blue Jays and the Japanese players on the Dodgers. Last years’ Series with the marquee teams of the Dodgers and Yankees did not pull in those ratings.
About the Rays: “Josh Lowe-Trade of Brandon Lowe reduces surname confusion but increases pressure on Josh’s stick.” These two players have the same last name, but they are pronounced differently.
About the Phillies: “Adolis Garcia: Two years after being a World Series hero, was non-tendered by the Rangers.”
“Kyle Schwarber: Knows what it’s like to be non-tendered by a team for whom you were a World Series hero.”
About the Reds: “TJ Friedl: His picture is next to ‘scrappy’ in the dictionary.”
“Ke’Bryan Hayes: Terrific with the glove at third base, but might as well wear a mitt in the batter’s box, too.” Ouch.
About the Cardinals: “Victor Scott II: Raps on the side, under the name, “Argo,” center-field defense outstrips his flow.”
About the Padres: “Top Prospects Kruz Schoolcraft. The 6-foot-8 2025 first-round draft pick has a name you’ll remember even if he doesn’t pan out.”
About the Rockies: “Paul DePodesta is back from the gridiron, but the Broncos have as good a chance of winning the NL West as the Rockies do.” DePodesta was previously working for the Cleveland Browns, obviously some real out-of-the-box thinking there. The Rockies did have the distinction of being the only team that Lindy’s didn’t have anything good to say about. They didn’t even think much of Ezequiel Tovar, whom they put on the cover of this Mountain West edition. I handed the magazine off to my dad and told him to read the entry about the Rockies. He said, “Boy, they really don’t like their chances this year.”
There was also a back page article on Women’s professional Baseball, for some unknown reason.
One thing I always find interesting in these Preview magazines are the stats on attendance and payroll. The Dodgers are first in attendance with over 4M and first in payroll at $350M. The Padres are second in attendance at 3.4M (eighth in payroll), while the Mets are second in payroll at $342M (fifth in attendance). (The Yankees were third in both categories, if you were wondering.)
The A’s (768k) and the Rays (786k) were at the bottom in attendance, but they were playing in minor league parks. The Marlins (1.1M) were the lowest in attendance at an actual Major League stadium. The Marlins were also lowest in payroll at $67M with A’s and Rays not far off.
A few other stats I found interesting. Most teams’ payrolls track with their attendance. The Rangers had the worst discrepancy being seventh in payroll, but seventeenth in attendance. The Rockies may have made out the best being twenty-second in payroll, but fifteenth in attendance to see the worst team in the league (.265 winning percentage). The Brewers were the best regular season team at .599. They were twelfth in attendance and eighteen in payroll.
The St. Louis Cardinals were twentieth in attendance and payroll. That is shameful for such a proud franchise. Finally, the Orioles were twenty-third in attendance, but sixteenth in payroll. Granted, the team wasn’t winning last season, but they weren’t drawing well when they were. They were just below Washington in attendance. That’s a worse team with little prospect of getting better in a much smaller, but far richer, market.
I should mention that attendance is also dependent on the capacity of the stadium (and the city population to some extent). Most stadiums are in the high 30’s to low 40’s. Currently, only Dodger Stadium is in the 50’s (56k capacity) and that’s after a recent renovation. Surprisingly, Chase Field (Diamondbacks) was #2 at 48k, but it will be renovated in the near future and likely lose seats. T-Mobile Park (Mariners) was third at 47k. Yankee Stadium and Coors field used to have 50k capacity, but they’re now at 46k. [Actually, Coors has a 50k capacity, if you add in standing room area.] At the other end, Sutter Health Park (A’s) only holds 14k and George Steinbrenner Field (Rays) holds 11k, but Tropicana Field reopens this season, so the Rays will return to their usual poor attendance in a Major League stadium. (Do we need a Weighted Attendance (wAtt) stat? Where’s Bill James?)
Salary Cap Analysis
This is it! This is the year I’m rooting for the Dodgers to win the World Series! Have I given in to the inevitable and succumb to the hype? Heavens, no. I just want them to win so that the salary cap finally gets implemented.
This is the big issue this year. The apologists for the current system (the Dodgers spending their way to victory) are negotiating with themselves at this point over the impending lockout at the end of this season. They acknowledge that there’s a severe spending imbalance. They want to tweak the competitive balance tax and also force the low end franchises to spend more money. I don’t think that attitude works when even when even the New York Yankees fold in the offseason and say, “Too rich for my blood.”
The Dodgers spend a lot, but they make a whole lot more. Shohei Ohtani has been a gushing well of money for them in the Japanese market. The Mets are trying to keep up, but don’t have the organization to properly utilize the resources to compete like the Dodgers do and look like idiots. Mets Owner, Steve Cohn, needs guardianship on his bank account to stop him from hurting himself any further.
The other teams are either trying to be prudently competitive or just not trying. In effect they’re saying, “We’re not spending until we’re facing each other on more equal terms.” Simply, the Dodgers may have broken the will of the other 29 owners.
Maybe back in the day, people were okay with superstar Yankee teams being in the World Series every year with their fans saying, “We bought our championships fair and square,” but not today. The NFL has already faced this problem of a maverick, free-spending franchise upsetting the apple cart and dealt with it (much to my chagrin as a Cowboys fan). Fans may hate the Patriots and Chiefs’ dynasties, but they don’t think that the teams purchased their success. (This isn’t to say that the Patriots might not have cheated their way to the Superbowl and that the Chiefs weren’t getting help from the refs to help script perfect endings for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, but that’s a different issue.)
I’m not against the Dodgers or other teams making as much money as they can. Wide disparity between markets virtually guarantees revenue will be unequal in a sport that depends heavily on attendance revenue. However, everybody should be limited on what they can spend on their teams, because the MLB is selling competition amongst equals at the top level of the sport. Nobody’s paying to watch the Dodgers take infield and they’re not paying to see them play the Washington Generals if the umpires aren’t getting hit with buckets of confetti.
Right now for salaries, there’s no floor and there’s a soft cap that allows unlimited spending, but with penalties (the competitive balance tax). So, this is where you get the discrepancy of $67M to $350M in spending. The current proposal is a minimum salary and a maximum salary for the teams and these would be hard caps. The fans and the teams are for it, while quibbling about the numbers and how to implement it. (The Dodgers have an enormous amount in deferred salaries, which would have to be accounted for. Deferred salaries must also be eliminated.)
I think the owners had been okay with the soft cap, because it allowed them to “go for it” whenever they felt they’d built up a team that could compete for a World Series. Without a floor, owners could tear down and draft high to rebuild without having to overspend for little hope of good results. That system has been abused at the low end and now completely exposed at the top end. Too many teams have dropped into the non-competitive category and are “drawing welfare” from the competitive balance tax. A handful of teams are running up the salaries of superstar players, ensuring they’re the only ones who can get them. The ones in the middle may have calculated that their best chance of competing is to change the system and implement the cap.
Essentially, the Players Union and the Media are the only ones fighting the cap. They really can’t articulate why. All they are saying is, “This won’t work to create more competition,” and, “The players won’t accept a cap.” That’s it. A floor on spending should actually increase player salaries overall. The cap isn’t necessarily going to limit superstar salaries, since more teams will be in the running for them. I’m tired of hearing the inevitable talk about star players on small teams approaching free agency, and it’s always the Dodgers and Yankees listed as likely suitors. The small market teams should not be a feeder system to the large market teams.
When I say, “the Players Union,” even that is a misnomer. It’s the high-powered agents, lawyers, their superstar players, and the true believers in the union. You’ll recall what happened the last time there was a lockout. The union reps rejected the owner’s final proposal. The rank and file players overrode them and voted for it. A lot of these players are doing pretty well and have little motivation to fight (and lose their income) for the “right” of superstar players to make enormous salaries. It’s not like everyone will get to play on the Dodgers and the Yankees.
One thing about this Dodger reign: it will end when Shohei Ohtani stops playing for them. Right now, the Dodgers are making tremendous amounts of income from the Japanese media and sponsorship. They are wisely attempting to win championships in this window as long as the money is pouring in. When it closes, they’ll be more restrained, likely actively seeking out more Japanese stars for the team. Now, this isn’t to say they still won’t be a first-class organization and always in title-contention; they’re just not going to be as brazen about it.
A salary cap might be seen as a permanent fix to a temporary problem, but really the salary imbalance has been unacceptable for quite a while now. The Dodgers winning another World Series this year will prove it to everyone. Certainly, the number of lower tier teams will grow regardless. The Union wants that floor to fix it. How bad to they want it?
My best guess for a settlement is a hard $150M salary floor, which will double salaries for the lower tier teams. There will be a corresponding drastic increase in the penalties for going over the current soft cap of $244M, which will essentially be a hard cap. The distribution of those penalties will count towards that increased floor number. The Dodgers will be free to continue what they’re doing, since they can afford it (for now). Some owners may sell rather than meet the floor, but there will be buyers. The Union could “save face,” by saying they kept the MLB from implementing a cap.
Predictions
AL East
The Blue Jays were this close (holds fingers just apart) from winning the World Series, so they’re good and hungry. The team led the AL in batting and improved their team pitching in the offseason, but I think the Red Sox will win the division. They lost Bregman, but added pitching and will hit better and will make a move at the trade deadline. The Orioles added Pete Alonso, but I’m not sold on them turning it around yet. What am I, nothing to you? Pipe down, Yankees! You’re full of sound and fury signifying nothing. At least the Rays are back to playing indoors this season. They’re not going to do anything until they for sure get a new stadium.
AL Central
It should be the Tigers winning this division. Tarik Skubal is pitching for a huge free agent contract and they picked up Framber Valdez (and for some reason, Justin Verlander). They just didn’t pick up some batting in the offseason. If the Tigers disappoint, that’ll be why. The Royals do have the batting and will be fighting the Tigers for the division. (KC has also moved in their fences.) I know we should have learned to not sleep on the Indians after last season, but until they change their name back, they’re not winning. The Twins and the White Sox are there to bolster the Tigers’ and Royals’ win numbers.
AL West
It had better be the Mariners winning the division or Seattle fans will riot and burn down the stadium. (Given the politics of the people of Seattle, they might not need an excuse.) They improved the team a bit picking up Brendan Donovan in the offseason, but Cal Raleigh probably won’t hit 60 home runs. This is still a team that nearly made it to the World Series. Look for some trades to shore up their hitting some more.
Speaking as a homer, I think the Rangers may give them a fight for it. They led the AL in pitching and defense last season; they just couldn’t hit. They added more pitching with Mackenzie Gore, who just needs better instruction to be a star, though the Rangers did lose Mike Maddux as their Pitcher Whisperer. They also traded Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo. This may have been for clubhouse issues as much as for offense. Semien seems like a really good guy, but there are rumors about him and Corey Seager, who seems pretty mellow, not getting along. Seager and others on the team staying healthy will determine the Rangers’ success. If competitive, they’ll add pieces at the trade deadline.
I think the music has finally stopped for the Astros. There’s talent there, but they’re likely played out. Look for a teardown and a rebuild starting next year. The Angels are still irrelevant. The homeless A’s really need to keep their good, young hitters and hold on to them until they make it to Las Vegas. Once there, add some pitching, and you’ve got a good team.
NL East
This should be an entertaining dogfight between the Braves, the Phillies, and the Mets. By picking up Freddy Peralta (though losing closer Edwin Diaz), the Mets may have the edge, especially if they’re will to pay whatever to win. However, Phillies are desperately trying to keep their winning window open with some old man energy. Meanwhile, the Braves may have the best overall team, if they can stay healthy. It’s a three-sided coin flip. The Marlins and the Nationals have had so much talent running through them, but it’s all going to go away to other teams.
NL Central
The Brewers traded their best pitcher (Peralta) and are done. Wait, I’ve said that before. They were #1 in pitching and #2 in hitting in the National League last season. There’s got to be a drop off at some point from this talent drain, but it might not be this season. Granted, the main reason the Brewers are winning is because of how questionable the rest of the division is.
I actually like the Pirates to challenge them. Beyond Paul Skenes, they’ve got good young pitching and some upcoming hitting prospects, like Konnor Griffin. Management did open up the pocketbook finally and brought in Brandon Lowe. Maybe they’ll add some relief pitching at the trade deadline. If Oneil Cruz puts it together, this could be a good team. (Lot’s of “If’s, though.”) The Cubs are floundering. Losing Kyle Tucker and picking up Alex Bregman wasn’t really a win. The Reds are a bit of an enigma. If players they have play up to potential, they’re a Wild Card team, at least. (More “If’s.”) My poor Aunt Judy. Her beloved Cardinals are going into a rebuild finally, years later than they should have.
NL West
The Dodgers are going to run away with this. Apparently last season, they actually laid back a bit to be better rested for the playoffs. They won the offseason by picking up the best free agent hitter in Kyle Tucker and best reliever in Edwin Diaz. They’ll likely also win the trade deadline by picking up Tarik Skubal from the Tigers. The speculation on this was rampant after getting Tucker. The Dodgers do reportedly have the best farm system to trade with and the Tigers and Skubal had a very contentious arbitration, which the Tigers lost. If the Tigers don’t play up to expectations, this trade will happen. The Dodgers greatest opponent will be fatigue from playing through October for the last two years. If they don’t win, that’ll be the only reason.
Everyone else is playing for a Wild Card. As talented as the Padres are, they’ve lost pieces and the Giants picked up a good one in Luis Arreaz. The Diamondbacks resigned Zac Gallen and acquired Nolan Arenado for a bag of chips. Don’t count them out. This might be a good fight between these teams. I feel like I’m forgetting something. (Flips pages on preview magazine.) Oh yeah, the Rockies are still in the league and haven’t been relegated in favor of promoting a good Triple-A team.
How does this all end? Who loses to the Dodgers in the NLCS and the World Series? Mariners over the Tigers in the ALCS. (Alternately, if the Tigers falter and get blown up at the trade deadline, maybe the Royals.) The Dodgers’ NLCS opponent is wide open, but I’ll pick the Giants, who will over-perform and pick up some help during the season. Okay, this is a really dumb pick. Let’s make a less edgy one. How about the Phillies? Really, it’s a tossup between several teams that aren’t as good as the Dodgers. When you know how the movie ends, do you need to know about all of the side characters’ fates? At least the M’s versus the Dodgers World Series should play well in Japan.





