Sorry, this blog was originally titled,
“MLB Hot Stove 2025.” I really meant to do it, but the
trades kept dribbling out until I decided to make it part of this
season’s preview. I tried keeping up with major trades, but
probably missed a few anyway. Well, let’s get to the
Preview.
Preview Magazine
I picked up Lindy’s
Baseball Preview magazine at
the end of January. I was surprised to find it there
so early. In fact, it was way too early. There were a
bunch of important signings and trades that happened after. I
don’t know why they don’t publish this at the beginning of
March. Trades no longer mostly happen at the Winter Meetings.
It goes all winter.
I actually really wished I’d waited.
I went back to Barnes & Noble a couple of times and found
more and likely better ones. The Athlon
one seemed to have better articles. Baseball
America, now a regular-sized
magazine instead a tabloid, produced a preview issue. (They
also had a separate College Baseball preview issue.) Sports
Illustrated had a mostly
baseball issue for Opening Day week with the latest updates. The
best I can say is that the Lindy’s
one may have been the cheapest option.
The text of the preview magazine I did get
was fairly functional, but there were a few zingers.
About the World Series: “In a subhead
that required three semicolons and an inconsistent use of
capitalization, the league proclaimed: Game Seven is Most-Watched MLB
Game Globally in 34 years.” The MLB points to the huge
ratings of last years’ World Series and international viewers, but
two/thirds of the audience was in Canada and Japan for the Blue Jays
and the Japanese players on the Dodgers. Last years’ Series
with the marquee teams of the Dodgers and Yankees did not pull in
those ratings.
About the Rays: “Josh Lowe-Trade of
Brandon Lowe reduces surname confusion but increases pressure on
Josh’s stick.” These two players have the same last name,
but they are pronounced differently.
About the Phillies: “Adolis Garcia: Two
years after being a World Series hero, was non-tendered by the
Rangers.”
“Kyle Schwarber: Knows what it’s like
to be non-tendered by a team for whom you were a World Series hero.”
About the Reds: “TJ Friedl: His picture
is next to ‘scrappy’ in the dictionary.”
“Ke’Bryan Hayes: Terrific with the
glove at third base, but might as well wear a mitt in the batter’s
box, too.” Ouch.
About the Cardinals: “Victor Scott II:
Raps on the side, under the name, “Argo,” center-field defense
outstrips his flow.”
About the Padres: “Top Prospects Kruz
Schoolcraft. The 6-foot-8 2025 first-round draft pick has a
name you’ll remember even if he doesn’t pan out.”
About the Rockies: “Paul DePodesta is
back from the gridiron, but the Broncos have as good a chance of
winning the NL West as the Rockies do.” DePodesta was
previously working for the Cleveland Browns, obviously some real
out-of-the-box thinking there. The Rockies did have the
distinction of being the only team that Lindy’s didn’t have
anything good to say about. They didn’t even think much of
Ezequiel Tovar, whom they put on the cover of this Mountain West
edition. I handed the magazine off to my dad and told him to
read the entry about the Rockies. He said, “Boy, they really
don’t like their chances this year.”
There was also a back page article on
Women’s professional Baseball, for some unknown reason.
One thing I always find interesting in
these Preview magazines are the stats on attendance and payroll.
The Dodgers are first in attendance with over 4M and first in payroll
at $350M. The Padres are second in attendance at 3.4M (eighth
in payroll), while the Mets are second in payroll at $342M (fifth in
attendance). (The Yankees were third in both categories, if
you were wondering.)
The A’s (768k) and the Rays (786k) were
at the bottom in attendance, but they were playing in minor league
parks. The Marlins (1.1M) were the lowest in attendance at an
actual Major League stadium. The Marlins were also lowest in
payroll at $67M with A’s and Rays not far off.
A few other stats I found interesting.
Most teams’ payrolls track with their attendance. The
Rangers had the worst discrepancy being seventh in payroll, but
seventeenth in attendance. The Rockies may have made out the
best being twenty-second in payroll, but fifteenth in attendance to
see the worst team in the league (.265 winning percentage).
The Brewers were the best regular season team at .599. They
were twelfth in attendance and eighteen in payroll.
The St. Louis Cardinals were twentieth in
attendance and payroll. That is shameful for such a proud
franchise. Finally, the Orioles were twenty-third in
attendance, but sixteenth in payroll. Granted, the team wasn’t
winning last season, but they weren’t drawing well when they were.
They were just below Washington in attendance. That’s a
worse team with little prospect of getting better in a much smaller,
but far richer, market.
I should mention that attendance is also
dependent on the capacity of the stadium (and the city population to
some extent). Most stadiums are in the high 30’s to low
40’s. Currently, only Dodger Stadium is in the 50’s (56k
capacity) and that’s after a recent renovation.
Surprisingly, Chase Field (Diamondbacks) was #2 at 48k, but it will
be renovated in the near future and likely lose seats.
T-Mobile Park (Mariners) was third at 47k. Yankee Stadium and
Coors field used to have 50k capacity, but they’re now at 46k.
[Actually, Coors has a 50k capacity, if you add in standing room
area.] At the other end, Sutter Health Park (A’s) only holds
14k and George Steinbrenner Field (Rays) holds 11k, but Tropicana
Field reopens this season, so the Rays will return to their usual
poor attendance in a Major League stadium. (Do we need a
Weighted Attendance (wAtt) stat? Where’s Bill James?)
Salary Cap Analysis
This is it! This is the year I’m
rooting for the Dodgers to win the World Series! Have I given
in to the inevitable and succumb to the hype? Heavens, no.
I just want them to win so that the salary cap finally gets
implemented.
This is the big issue this year.
The apologists for the current system (the Dodgers spending their way
to victory) are negotiating with themselves at this point over the
impending lockout at the end of this season. They acknowledge that
there’s a severe spending imbalance. They want to tweak the
competitive balance tax and also force the low end franchises to
spend more money. I don’t think that attitude works when
even when even the New York Yankees fold in the offseason and say,
“Too rich for my blood.”
The Dodgers spend a lot, but they make a
whole lot more. Shohei Ohtani has been a gushing well of money
for them in the Japanese market. The Mets are trying to keep
up, but don’t have the organization to properly utilize the
resources to compete like the Dodgers do and look like idiots.
Mets Owner, Steve Cohn, needs guardianship on his bank account to
stop him from hurting himself any further.
The other teams are either trying to be
prudently competitive or just not trying. In effect they’re
saying, “We’re not spending until we’re facing each other on
more equal terms.” Simply, the Dodgers may have broken
the will of the other 29 owners.
Maybe back in the day, people were okay
with superstar Yankee teams being in the World Series every year with
their fans saying, “We bought our championships fair and square,”
but not today. The NFL has already faced this problem of a
maverick, free-spending franchise upsetting the apple cart and dealt
with it (much to my chagrin as a Cowboys fan). Fans may hate
the Patriots and Chiefs’ dynasties, but they don’t think that the
teams purchased their success. (This isn’t to say that the
Patriots might not have cheated their way to the Superbowl and that
the Chiefs weren’t getting help from the refs to help script
perfect endings for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, but that’s a
different issue.)
I’m not against the Dodgers or other
teams making as much money as they can. Wide disparity between
markets virtually guarantees revenue will be unequal in a sport that
depends heavily on attendance revenue. However, everybody
should be limited on what they can spend on their teams, because the
MLB is selling competition amongst equals at the top level of the
sport. Nobody’s paying to watch the Dodgers take infield and
they’re not paying to see them play the Washington Generals if the
umpires aren’t getting hit with buckets of confetti.
Right now for salaries, there’s no floor
and there’s a soft cap that allows unlimited spending, but with
penalties (the competitive balance tax). So, this is where you
get the discrepancy of $67M to $350M in spending. The current
proposal is a minimum salary and a maximum salary for the teams and
these would be hard caps. The fans and the teams are for it,
while quibbling about the numbers and how to implement it.
(The Dodgers have an enormous amount in deferred salaries, which
would have to be accounted for. Deferred salaries must also be
eliminated.)
I think the owners had been okay with the
soft cap, because it allowed them to “go for it” whenever they
felt they’d built up a team that could compete for a World Series.
Without a floor, owners could tear down and draft high to rebuild
without having to overspend for little hope of good results.
That system has been abused at the low end and now completely exposed
at the top end. Too many teams have dropped into the
non-competitive category and are “drawing welfare” from the
competitive balance tax. A handful of teams are running up the
salaries of superstar players, ensuring they’re the only ones who
can get them. The ones in the middle may have calculated that
their best chance of competing is to change the system and implement
the cap.
Essentially, the Players Union and the
Media are the only ones fighting the cap. They really can’t
articulate why. All they are saying is, “This won’t work
to create more competition,” and, “The players won’t accept a
cap.” That’s it. A floor on spending should
actually increase player salaries overall. The cap isn’t
necessarily going to limit superstar salaries, since more teams will
be in the running for them. I’m tired of hearing the
inevitable talk about star players on small teams approaching free
agency, and it’s always the Dodgers and Yankees listed as likely
suitors. The small market teams should not be a feeder system
to the large market teams.
When I say, “the Players Union,” even
that is a misnomer. It’s the high-powered agents, lawyers,
their superstar players, and the true believers in the union.
You’ll recall what happened the last time there was a lockout.
The union reps rejected the owner’s final proposal. The rank
and file players overrode them and voted for it. A lot of
these players are doing pretty well and have little motivation to
fight (and lose their income) for the “right” of superstar
players to make enormous salaries. It’s not like everyone
will get to play on the Dodgers and the Yankees.
One thing about this Dodger reign: it will
end when Shohei Ohtani stops playing for them. Right now, the
Dodgers are making tremendous amounts of income from the Japanese
media and sponsorship. They are wisely attempting to win
championships in this window as long as the money is pouring in.
When it closes, they’ll be more restrained, likely actively seeking
out more Japanese stars for the team. Now, this isn’t to say
they still won’t be a first-class organization and always in
title-contention; they’re just not going to be as brazen about it.
A salary cap might be seen as a permanent
fix to a temporary problem, but really the salary imbalance has been
unacceptable for quite a while now. The Dodgers winning
another World Series this year will prove it to everyone.
Certainly, the number of lower tier teams will grow regardless.
The Union wants that floor to fix it. How bad to they want
it?
My best guess for a settlement is a hard
$150M salary floor, which will double salaries for the lower tier
teams. There will be a corresponding drastic increase in the
penalties for going over the current soft cap of $244M, which will
essentially be a hard cap. The distribution of those penalties
will count towards that increased floor number. The Dodgers
will be free to continue what they’re doing, since they can afford
it (for now). Some owners may sell rather than meet the floor, but
there will be buyers. The Union could “save face,” by
saying they kept the MLB from implementing a cap.
Predictions
AL East
The Blue Jays were this close (holds
fingers just apart) from winning the World Series, so they’re good
and hungry. The team led the AL in batting and improved their
team pitching in the offseason, but I think the Red Sox will win the
division. They lost Bregman, but added pitching and will hit
better and will make a move at the trade deadline. The Orioles
added Pete Alonso, but I’m not sold on them turning it around yet.
What am I, nothing to you?
Pipe down, Yankees! You’re full of sound and fury
signifying nothing. At least the Rays are back to playing
indoors this season. They’re not going to do anything until
they for sure get a new stadium.
AL Central
It should be the Tigers winning this
division. Tarik Skubal is pitching for a huge free agent
contract and they picked up Framber Valdez (and for some reason,
Justin Verlander). They just didn’t pick up some batting in
the offseason. If the Tigers disappoint, that’ll be why.
The Royals do have the batting and will be fighting the Tigers
for the division. (KC has also moved in their fences.)
I know we should have learned to not sleep on the Indians after last
season, but until they change their name back, they’re not
winning. The Twins and the White Sox are there to bolster the
Tigers’ and Royals’ win numbers.
AL West
It had better be the Mariners winning the
division or Seattle fans will riot and burn down the stadium.
(Given the politics of the people of Seattle, they might not need an
excuse.) They improved the team a bit picking up Brendan
Donovan in the offseason, but Cal Raleigh probably won’t hit 60
home runs. This is still a team that nearly made it to the
World Series. Look for some trades to shore up their hitting
some more.
Speaking as a homer, I think the Rangers
may give them a fight for it. They led the AL in pitching and
defense last season; they just couldn’t hit. They added more
pitching with Mackenzie Gore, who just needs better instruction to be
a star, though the Rangers did lose Mike Maddux as their Pitcher
Whisperer. They also traded Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo.
This may have been for clubhouse issues as much as for offense.
Semien seems like a really good guy, but there are rumors about
him and Corey Seager, who seems pretty mellow, not getting along.
Seager and others on the team staying healthy will determine the
Rangers’ success. If competitive, they’ll add pieces at
the trade deadline.
I think the music has finally stopped for
the Astros. There’s talent there, but they’re likely
played out. Look for a teardown and a rebuild starting next
year. The Angels are still irrelevant. The homeless A’s
really need to keep their good, young hitters and hold on to them
until they make it to Las Vegas. Once there, add some
pitching, and you’ve got a good team.
NL East
This should be an entertaining dogfight
between the Braves, the Phillies, and the Mets. By picking up
Freddy Peralta (though losing closer Edwin Diaz), the Mets may have
the edge, especially if they’re will to pay whatever to win.
However, Phillies are desperately trying to keep their winning window
open with some old man energy. Meanwhile, the Braves may have
the best overall team, if they can stay healthy. It’s a
three-sided coin flip. The Marlins and the Nationals have had
so much talent running through them, but it’s all going to go away
to other teams.
NL Central
The Brewers traded their best pitcher
(Peralta) and are done. Wait, I’ve said that before.
They were #1 in pitching and #2 in hitting in the National League
last season. There’s got to be a drop off at some point from
this talent drain, but it might not be this season. Granted,
the main reason the Brewers are winning is because of how
questionable the rest of the division is.
I actually like the Pirates to challenge
them. Beyond Paul Skenes, they’ve got good young pitching
and some upcoming hitting prospects, like Konnor Griffin.
Management did open up the pocketbook finally and brought in Brandon
Lowe. Maybe they’ll add some relief pitching at the trade
deadline. If Oneil Cruz puts it together, this could be a good
team. (Lot’s of “If’s, though.”) The Cubs are
floundering. Losing Kyle Tucker and picking up Alex Bregman
wasn’t really a win. The Reds are a bit of an enigma.
If players they have play up to potential, they’re a Wild Card
team, at least. (More “If’s.”) My poor Aunt
Judy. Her beloved Cardinals are going into a rebuild finally,
years later than they should have.
NL West
The Dodgers are going to run away with
this. Apparently last season, they actually laid back a bit to
be better rested for the playoffs. They won the offseason by
picking up the best free agent hitter in Kyle Tucker and best
reliever in Edwin Diaz. They’ll likely also win the trade
deadline by picking up Tarik Skubal from the Tigers. The
speculation on this was rampant after getting Tucker. The
Dodgers do reportedly have the best farm system to trade with and the
Tigers and Skubal had a very contentious arbitration, which the
Tigers lost. If the Tigers don’t play up to expectations,
this trade will happen. The Dodgers greatest opponent will be
fatigue from playing through October for the last two years.
If they don’t win, that’ll be the only reason.
Everyone else is playing for a Wild Card.
As talented as the Padres are, they’ve lost pieces and the
Giants picked up a good one in Luis Arreaz. The Diamondbacks
resigned Zac Gallen and acquired Nolan Arenado for a bag of chips.
Don’t count them out. This might be a good fight between
these teams. I feel like I’m forgetting something.
(Flips pages on preview
magazine.) Oh yeah, the
Rockies are still in the league and haven’t been relegated in favor
of promoting a good Triple-A team.
How does this all end? Who loses to
the Dodgers in the NLCS and the World Series? Mariners over
the Tigers in the ALCS. (Alternately, if the Tigers falter and
get blown up at the trade deadline, maybe the Royals.) The
Dodgers’ NLCS opponent is wide open, but I’ll pick the Giants,
who will over-perform and pick up some help during the season.
Okay, this is a really dumb pick. Let’s make a less edgy
one. How about the Phillies? Really, it’s a tossup
between several teams that aren’t as good as the Dodgers. When
you know how the movie ends, do you need to know about all of the
side characters’ fates? At least the M’s versus the
Dodgers World Series should play well in Japan.