MLB Preview 2018

The situation hasn’t improved since my last rant (1-5-18).  Well, there’s been one improvement: I’ve stopped listening to ESPN Radio.  I don’t care about the NFL or the NBA or Tiger Woods, so there’s no reason to listen.  However, my dream of attending Spring Training was again crushed this year.  The person I’d hoped to go with decided not to make the trip.  Also, he didn’t know I was planning on going with him.  Just to make matters worse, before pitchers and catchers even reported, some players were threatening to boycott Spring Training altogether.      

Cue the violin music as I quickly recap the baseball labor situation which has disgruntled these beleaguered players.  Next season, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, and several other A-list stars will become free agents.  This has had the unintended effect of making this years’ group of free agents, who weren’t all that great, much less attractive.  There were about 100 of them sitting around with no offers before Spring Training.  Many big spending teams are dumping salary and saving money in preparation for wooing the big names.  Near future free agents, who aren’t big stars, are also worried that their value is going to go down as well.   

  

Let’s hear from one of these poor, disadvantaged professional baseball players. 

As players, we need them to secure the biggest and longest contracts.  We need this class to push the market higher and higher as revenues go higher and higher.  When revenues are at all-time highs, increasing to historic levels, that warrants historic contracts.  We don’t need to hear more excuses about teams not spending actively this year to make sure their resources are available next year.  Things better start acting normally. 

Thank you, Max Scherzer.  I’m sure we’ve all been moved by your contrite humility and inspired by your eloquent gratitude for being blessed enough to play this great game of baseball.  (I also get the impression that he’s a player-union rep when not pitching.)  These poor free agents are being forced to accept being paid millions of dollars for three or four years instead of tens of millions of dollars for a decade.  It’s so unfair.  As long as the owners and fans still have money, that means the players can be paid more. 

Apart from congressmen, is there any group of people in this country that people have less sympathy for than Major League Baseball players?  Well, probably, but this is a baseball post, so let’s go with that.  As mindlessly greedy as the players are, I think that’s reason enough to keep more money out of their hands.  At least some of the owners have some business acumen and employ a bunch of people with their wealth.  (No, players, purchasing the services of a personal shopper for your wife isn’t the same thing.)      

I sincerely don’t think these guys understand how thin the ice is that they’re standing on.  Real baseball fans are known for their long memories and knowledge of the sport’s history.  They have not forgotten that senseless player’s strike that canceled a World Series.  Baseball is really dependent on attendance, much more than the NFL or NBA.  (The NFL didn’t even care if half the fans showed up last year.)  If people don’t show up, the team moves, and there aren’t many places left in the country that will build a stadium for an MLB team.    

Local TV contracts are doing really well for the teams, but apart from the World Series (depending on who’s playing) the league is hurting for a national audience.  With ESPN’s money problems, I could see them dumping baseball.  They’re all NFL/NBA all-the-time anyway.  Fox will be relegating baseball to FS1 for US-less World Cup coverage.  (What an insult.)  They just want to broadcast the World Series; they don’t care about the rest of it.  Little wonder the MLB has been exploring Internet outlets for games for a national presence (MLB TV, Yahoo, Twitter).  Me and some other hardcore fans will keep watching likely no matter what, but don’t think for a minute that that’s a large group of people.  I’m sure my threats and warnings are meaningless to the Players’ Union, but here’s a surefire prediction: if guys just shut up and play, you’ll all be millionaires.         

I resisted getting a baseball preview magazine last month, since there were so many unaccounted for free agents.  Their information was certainly going to be well out-of-date before the season started.  I went to Barnes & Noble looking for Sports Illustrated’s preview.  Not only would it be up to date, but I liked the writing in the preview issues I’ve gotten over the last couple of years.  (Other than their college football preview issue, those were the only issues I enjoyed from my subscription last year.) 

Unfortunately, the only SI I found at the store on the newsstand was the Swimsuit Issue and a Philadelphia Eagles championship magazine.  Wow, the Swimsuit Issue’s really fallen off the face of the earth in popularity.  I remember long ago counting the days until it came out and now I’m like, Are they still doing this?  I think when they started using fat chicks it was over.  Even putting in pictures of male athletes wasn’t as big a betrayal.  In any case, the weekly magazine hasn’t always been on their newsstand, so I wasn’t terribly surprised.  It also wasn’t on the rack of Albertsons here in town, where has usually been.    

As long as I was there at the B&N and still wanted a preview, I broke down and bought Baseball Digest and Athlon Sports Baseball Preview (Nolan Arenado cover and promising “4 pages of Rockies team coverage,” oooh), since I couldn’t decide between the two.  Though not current in their projected rosters, I decided that most of the free agents out there, probably weren’t going to be big impacts anyway.  I felt much better about the purchase when I noticed an article about ballpark food in the back of the Athlon magazine.  That, at least, will be interesting reading.  It also listed former Aggie, Daniel Johnson, was listed as one of the Washington Nationals’ top 10 prospects.  They like his speed and power.  (We did too.)

I’m so behind in my reading stack.  I’ve still got magazines there from the middle of last year (about the time my work schedule changed).  I’m not going to be able to read either magazine cover-to-cover, so I’ll be skimming them for information.  Both magazines made the same uninspired, albeit obvious, choices for division winners, but which I’m mostly agreeing with.  The winners and losers seem pretty well defined even before the season starts.          

I’m breaking the teams of the MLB into four groups. 

Going For It: These are teams who think they can win now.  Take note, I said “they” think they can win. 

Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants.

Of this group, the Giants, Rockies, Indians, and Nationals may be blown up after this year if they don’t win.  Gutty move by the Giants to pick up Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen.  We’ll see how it works out.  At least, they’re two really likeable players.   

Going Nowhere: These teams aren’t built to win, nor rebuilding.  They’re trying to put an above .500 product on the field with a few overvalued players to not run off their fans.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Braves.

The Rangers are about to get a new stadium, so they’ll be off this list in the near future.  I think the Mets do have a chance to get a wild card spot this year, but they don’t seem to.  I don’t know what the Braves’ deal is.  They got the new stadium.  They should be putting a better team on the field.  Maybe they need new management. 

Going Down the Drain: These guys are flat out tearing down to rebuild.

 Tigers, A’s, Marlins, Pirates, Reds.

That’s not as big a list as the Players’ Union would make you believe.  Ideally, they want all the bad teams to be in the Going Nowhere category, not this one, since it doesn’t make free agents more money having teams shredded.  I hope Derek Jeter is able to turn the Marlins around, because he’s going to be run out of town if he doesn’t for what he’s done. 

Going to be Good: Hope springs eternal.    Fans of these teams can look forward to watching a winning team in a year or two.

White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Padres.

Arguably, the Twins are already a good team, in spite of a late season teardown last year.  Perhaps they’ll improve themselves with some success this year.

Predictions

Okay, let’s just pull the band-aid off.  It’s going to be the Yankee$.  I’ve had a good ten+ year run without seeing pinstripes in the World Series and rooting for teams I like.  Sometimes, it’s been both teams in the Series.  The Dodger$ came close last year and almost ruined it for me, but at some point the near misses are going to result in a direct hit to my baseball happiness.  I actually made some pretty accurate predictions last year (3-28-17), though I got a bunch wrong too.  I did have the Astros as my backup winning pick. 

AL East: The Yankees should run away with it between Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge knocking the cover off the ball.  The Red Sox are still soft (in other words, David Price is still on the team).  They might buy a Wild Card spot.

AL Central: The Indians are way better than the rest of the division.  Also, this is their last year with Chief Wahoo.  Let’s win one for the Chief!  The Twins should contend for the Wild Card, if management doesn’t get cold feet and sabotage the team again.

AL West: The Astros are awesome.  Perhaps their youth will allow them to compete this year in the World Series after playing an extra month last year.  They also added Gerrit Cole and will have Justin Verlander for the whole season.  The Angels are kidding themselves with their upgrades, including the talk of the off-season, Shohei Ohtani, who might not make the big league club to start the season.  The curse (read: contract) of Albert Pujols still hangs around their neck.

NL East: The Nationals will win this or explode in a memorable fashion.  If they are not somehow leading the division or first in the Wild Card by the trading deadline, the fire sale will start immediately.  Bryce Harper will be out the door first.

NL Central: The Cubs have had a year to recover from winning in 2016.  They’ve also seriously upgraded their pitching with the addition of Yu Darvish.  Unfortunately, he’s just been really good, not great, and will likely disappoint down the stretch.  The Cardinals and Brewers will be fighting for the Wild Card, if not the division, if the Cubs stumble.

NL West: Dodger$ management is right now focused on dumping useless salary and convincing the county to float a $500 million bond issue for the resigning of Clayton Kershaw.  (That might be a hard sell to public.  I can see that going down in a vote.  Maybe they can implement it via fiat like El Paso did when they brought in the Chihuahuas [4-14-13].)

The Dodgers just lost Justin Turner, probably for the season, and they played about as many games as the Astros last year.  The Dodgers may be more vulnerable than they look.  They might not entirely care if they don’t win it all this year, banking on some wild splurging next season to put them over the top.  The D-Backs, Rockies, and even the Giants may have a shot at the division, certainly the Wild Card.

How does it all play out?  Yankees over the Indians in the ALCS.  Cleveland fans moan in unison for another year.  Most self-styled Yankees fans won’t actually start watching until the World Series.  Cubs over the Nationals in the NLCS.  You’re questioning this.  The Cubs will make a mid-season pitching acquisition that will put them over the top.  Expect some blockbuster deadline deals to be done this season because of next year’s free agent class.  Yankee$ over the Cub$ in one of the most viewed World Series ever.

Okay, I admit I have some reservations about most of the stuff I’ve written here and, without a doubt, I hope I’m wrong about the championship result.