This year, I did go out and buy a preseason preview
magazine, so you can tell I’m serious about my predictions. Just like it says above the title, “The
Baseball Preview for Smart Fans.” That’s
me. Well, in an ironic twist, I lent the
magazine out to my dad before writing this, but I did read it.
Last years’ preview mags were kind of useless because of
the lockout. This year there was only
one choice for previews, the Lindy’s. There wasn’t an Athlon one like there usually is.
Baseball Digest put one out
later, but the articles and even the previews weren’t very
interesting-looking. I’m waiting on the Sports Illustrated one to come out. I’ll take a look at it.
The only out-of-date news in the issue involved Carlos Correa going back to the Twins.
I didn’t have his deal with the Mets
finalized when I wrote my Hot Stove article last
year. That was about the only deal, as
many of the free agents signed quickly.
I have some quibbles with the team articles. Parts seemed to be written independently of
each other or last second changes weren’t properly edited to harmonize the
coverage.
The up-front general baseball articles were not that great
frankly. There was an article on the Astros really earning last years’
championship and that the media and fans should let their grudge against them
go. I agree. The last page commentary was arguing that
rich owners overspending was great for the sport. Sure.
I was surprised from reading it that it was the Player’s Union that
wouldn’t allow a minimum payroll for all teams.
They said it would be the start of a salary cap.
Their league picks were (I took some quick notes before I
lent out the magazine) the Yankees
and the Braves. They didn’t pick a World Series winner. (I
don’t know why, but that’s the way they’ve done it in previous previews.) I don’t think the Correa deal would have changed
their NL pick (maybe?), certainly not their AL Central pick. They had the Mets as a Wild Card, but
finishing third in the East even with him.
They thought the Rangers
would be much improved and would be a Wild Card team. They’re not high on the Orioles, but do think they’re trending up. As much as they loved the Yankees, their article on them mostly
only listed their potential problems. They
thought that the Dodgers were curiously inactive. Experts think they’re saving their money to
go after Shohei Ohtani next
offseason. They picked the Padres to finish ahead of them. In their college prospects section, they had LSU with four players in the top 50. Troubling for my NM State Aggies, they had Jacob
Wilson from GCU on their list.
I plucked out a few interesting stats from the magazine. The Dodgers
were number one in payroll (Mets #2) and in attendance (Cardinals were #2, #13
in payroll). The Orioles were #30 in
payroll, and the A’s last in
attendance. Payroll and attendance were
usually close to one another for teams.
The biggest discrepancy I saw was the White Sox. They were #19 in
attendance, but seventh in payroll.
In the AL, the Blue Jays were best in hitting, and the
Astros were best in pitching. For the NL, it was the Mets in hitting, and the
Dodgers in pitching. Unsurprisingly, the
Rockies were best in home batting, but
worst in overall pitching. This is as
much of a Fantasy Baseball forecast as I’m doing.
As for my picks, I’ll break it down by division. (Albeit, a little rushed, since this is going
way long.)
AL
East
Do I pick the Yankees
every year? I picked the Blue Jays last year. That was a disappointment. I think Aaron
Judge will have maybe two good years before he’ll be better known for being
injured all the time. This may be their
year, though. The Jays are good enough
to get in with the expanded playoffs. Is
this the year the smoke and mirrors of the Rays
finally gets exposed and they end up in the cellar? Probably not this year, but it’s coming. I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing. I think
their GM is actually covertly working for the Yankees to sabotage the Sox. The Orioles
are my favorite East Coast team. They’re
in the playoffs. They nudge out the
Rays.
AL
Central
This division is so bad I refuse to talk about it.
Oh wait, my contract?
Shoot. Okay, fine. The Cleveland
baseball team is a continual irritation in my enjoyment of the MLB.
It’s much worse than the Washington
football team, because I’ve always hated those guys. I liked the Indians. Anyway, I’ll pick Guindians to win here. (There, I met you guys half way with your new
name.) With the new balanced schedule,
it might be with a losing record. The Royals, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox will be in a fight to the
death (of their fans) to stay out of last place. Okay, the Twins might be better than
that. Carlos Correa is certainly going to go out on the field with
something to prove. If his foot breaks
during the season, expect thinly disguised snickering from the Mets and
Giants.
AL
West
Another year of horrific disappointment for every team not
named the Astros. The Mariners
collapse. (Julio Rodriguez will sophomore slump.) The Rangers
do nothing, except backup another dump truck of money to send down a hole. The A’s
just keep doing whatever they’re doing.
(No change there, though according to the baseball preview magazine,
they’re going to be busy packing to move to Las Vegas.) The Angels?
The owner even botched selling the team, forget about even improving
it. Angel fans, enjoy the Shohei Ohtani Farewell season.
NL
East
Bryce
Harper is out again for part of the season, but with Trea Turner added, I like the Phillies’ chances to somehow win the
division. Yes, the Mets have better hitting and pitching, as do the Braves, but I can see all three of
these teams making the playoffs, regardless of how. The Nationals,
or the Padres East, are going to waiting for a while for their Juan Soto trade prospects to
mature. The Marlins genuinely have talent, surrounded by a bunch of bad
players. They might put it all together
in the near future, or trade off their good stuff for nothing. I’d put money on the latter option.
NL
Central
It’s gonna be the Cardinals. The Brewers’
heroic efforts to remain relevant aren’t going to materialize this season. The Cubs
made some moves, loser moves. Management
is attempting to look like they’re trying to win, but they aren’t. The Reds
and Pirates are still hopeless.
NL
West
This is the Padres’
year. They win the division this
year. The Dodgers will have to settle for beating them during the season and
possibly the postseason, but they won’t take the division from them. I’m told the Diamondbacks are an up-and-coming team. I’ll believe it when I see it. The Giants
will try again to figure out how they won all those games two years ago (hint:
it was Buster Posey) and will
fail. The only high Rockies fans will get this season will be from their local weed
dispensary. (They really should just put
one of those in Coors Field to
distract their fans from what’s going on on the field.)
Oh, that was fun.
Now, how will the playoffs play out?
Errr . . . Hold on. Mumble, mumble. Carry the two. Okay, here it is.
I don’t see any reason why it won’t be the Yankees and Astros in the AL
again. If either team has significant
injuries (Jose Altuve has already
had one in the WBC and, no, that
doesn’t mean he shouldn’t have played), the Blue Jays could be an alternate for either. If the Guindians
trade for some hitting, they could also be there. Otherwise, the Yankees out-muscle the Astros in pitching and hitting.
In the NL,
assuming the Dodgers are in striking
distance of winning the West before the trade deadline, look for them to make a
splashy move. That may or may not be the
difference in them moving on in the playoffs, as they may holding their powder
to get Shohei in the offseason. The Padres will counter. As good as the Mets are, I think injuries will take them out. I don’t think the Braves have the heart (Freddie
Freeman). The Phillies, riding on Bryce
Harper’s back, get to the league championship again. If the Padres
stay healthy, they win. If not, the Phillies beat the Dodgers.
The Yankees
will beat the Padres in the World
Series . . . on paper. In reality, Gerrit Cole comes up small again in the
playoffs and drags down the whole Yankee pitching staff with him. Aaron
Judge’s back breaks from carrying their offense (figuratively, perhaps
literally). The Padres aren’t prefect
and almost certainly will have their own major injuries and poor performances (expect
a big trade deadline move), but I think they’ve got enough players who will
play big on the big stage (namely Juan
Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. on a
redemption tour) to finally deliver a championship to San Diego.
As much as I’ve spoiled the upcoming season for you, you might want to watch anyway, just in case of the unlikely event that something I didn’t foresee happens.
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